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Service Description: The Consensus Forecast for Washoe County uses a number of leading forecasts, which has several advantages
over using a single source for forecasting population. Not only does the consensus approach minimize the risk
of large forecast errors, but consensus forecasts consistently outperform individual forecasts across a range
of variables. The consensus approach is discussed in further detail in the article titled “Consensus Forecasts in
Planning,” which can be found in the Consensus Forecast submitted materials page www.tmrpa.org/cfsubmittedmaterials
Four reputable sources of long-term forecasts for Washoe County were used: IHS Markit, a national forecasting firm in Massachusetts that prepares national, state and county forecasts; Woods and Poole, a national forecasting firm in Washington, DC, that forecasts for every county in the United States, as well as state and national forecasts; Truckee Meadows Water Authority’s Population and Employment Econometric Model; and the 2019 Nevada State Demographer’s Forecast.
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Comments: The Consensus Forecast for Washoe County uses a number of leading forecasts, which has several advantages
over using a single source for forecasting population. Not only does the consensus approach minimize the risk
of large forecast errors, but consensus forecasts consistently outperform individual forecasts across a range
of variables. The consensus approach is discussed in further detail in the article titled “Consensus Forecasts in
Planning,” which can be found in the Consensus Forecast submitted materials page www.tmrpa.org/cfsubmittedmaterials
Four reputable sources of long-term forecasts for Washoe County were used: IHS Markit, a national forecasting firm in Massachusetts that prepares national, state and county forecasts; Woods and Poole, a national forecasting firm in Washington, DC, that forecasts for every county in the United States, as well as state and national forecasts; Truckee Meadows Water Authority’s Population and Employment Econometric Model; and the 2019 Nevada State Demographer’s Forecast.
Subject: The Consensus Forecast for Washoe County uses a number of leading forecasts, which has several advantages over using a single source for forecasting population.
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Keywords: TMRPA,CF 2020
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